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There isn’t anyone young on that pace right now

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October 29, 2017

9:47 am

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Consider that while Cabrera is at 451 home runs at age 34, Bill James’ Favorite Toy gives him just a 34-percent chance at reaching 600. In two out of every three futures, something drags him down before he hits another 149 home runs. That’s a good start on your way to being impressed with just how unlikely 600 homers is; it’s hard even if you’re spotted the first 450. The final 25 percent will mess you up.

Think of a great 34-year-old player. Like Cabrera! Think of the sentence eh, if he averages 30 home runs for another five seasons, he’ll get that extra 150 he needs. Then look at the players with five of those seasons after turning 34. There are five of them in baseball history. If you want to change the parameters, and see how many hitters have the quintet of 25-homer seasons that Cabrera needs, the answer is seven.

And if you want to change parameters to include a 30-homer season here, a 25-homer season, a 20-homer season, followed by five 15-homer seasons … I mean, maybe? But you’re digging a pretty deep hole.

There isn’t anyone young on that pace right now, which means there simply aren’t going to be a lot of contenders for the 600-dinger throne. There are just nine active players with even 300 homers, and Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion are the youngest, at 34.

Trumbo was drafted in the 18th round of the 2004 draft as a pitcher, but he appeared in his first pro game in 2005, as a first baseman. I’m guessing either instructional league wasn’t very kind to his pitching, or the Angels knew where he was playing all along.

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The Yankees got the three MVP-caliber seasons from Cano

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October 25, 2017

3:36 am

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It is a political statement, though: Trump is deeply unpopular as POTUS, and Maddon even admitted that not going to the White House is a political statement. So, when you do the opposite and go to the White House, why isn’t that a political statement, too? Well, because it’s Maddon, like he always does as a manager, will say whatever he has to in order to shield his players and bosses from criticism. That’s an annoying but understandable trait for a manager, but when Maddon is using the same tactics for something more meaningful than adults playing sports in their pajamas, when he’s shielding the decision to visit the White House behind his privilege as a well-off white man, well, annoying doesn’t quite cover it.

Maddon says he’s going out of respect for the office and the building itself, a line that prioritizes the figurative symbolism of the office over real people. Real people like any Cubs fans who have been targeted by the president and cabinet working inside of it, whether because they’re a minority or an immigrant or LGBT or on Medicaid. And at a time when the voicemail inboxes of senators are overflowing with messages from constituents especially concerned about that last part.

The Yankees got the three MVP-caliber seasons from Cano, and they also got four starting-caliber seasons and five All-Star seasons. If there’s a tiebreaker between these two teams, it’s that the Yankees haven’t had a second baseman worth two wins since Brian Roberts in 2014. Starlin Castro appears ready to break that drought, though.

As for the other guy on the East Coast? Dustin Pedroia got close, and the Red Sox have enjoyed five starting-caliber seasons, six All-Star seasons, and one MVP-level season, which is outstanding compared to the rest of baseball. But they couldn’t quite get where the Phillies and Yankees were.

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What’s going on with all the veteran surges around baseball?

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October 17, 2017

1:15 pm

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This is an article about surprising hitters, oodles of them, all over the place, like that video where the guy pokes the pile of black fuzz and thousands of baby spiders emerge DON’T GOOGLE THAT. These aren’t your typical April and May surprises, the kind you can chalk up to sample size, the kind that will go away by July. These are bizarre stories that make me reevaluate just how much I know about baseball.

It’s hard to remember Jim Thome as a third baseman because we’re so used to his years as a first baseman. But he played third for six years, and he was generally OK. Just not as good as Matt Williams.

Imagine an 18-year-old Thome, hitting .237/.314/.296 while making 15 errors at shortstop for the Gulf Coast League Indians. He must have been so skinny, so spindly. There’s no way he could have been America’s Baseball Dad back then, even if he was clearly America’s Baseball Dad before he turned 30. He was moved to third base the next year.

There were a lot of contenders for this spot, and I was tempted to go with Tim Raines. Heck, I wonder if Chet Lemon becomes a Hall of Fame candidate if he sticks at short, and I have a sneaking suspicion that Mike Schmidt could have handed the position, too. But I think we’ll all agree that Thome is the funniest choice.

The ’60s saw the mound get lowered because pitchers were too dominant, and the ’70s saw the rise of fake grass, roofs, and concrete. The ’80s were filled with stolen bases, and the ’90s were filled with hideous logos.

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Joe Maddon is wrong about home-plate collisions

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October 15, 2017

8:01 pm

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Joe Maddon is supposed to be baseball’s cool dad, the one who shows up at the frat house barbecue and tosses beers around. He’s just like one of the guys, ha ha, there goes ol’ Joe. He’s going to shift his players over here! He’s going to shift them over there! He’s going to make his players wear onesies! Wacky ol’ Joe even showed up to his introductory press conference looking like the CEO of a company that sells organic chickpea snacks.

And, to be fair, it is nice to have a little variety in the managerial ranks. While it’s not unusual to have a cerebral manager really, it might be the default Maddon most definitely does stand out. It’s easy to dive into the backlash to the fawning praise, maybe even somewhat nourishing, but the sport is just a little more colorful with him in it.

There’s a dark underbelly to this image, however. While Maddon would love to rank IPAs with you at a Foo Fighters concert, he can also be a classic, old-timey, baseball dingus who believes in The Way Things Used To Be. If you’re not caught up on recent events, here’s a primer:

As a single tear rolls down my cheek, I proclaim this to be the most beautiful vision I have ever seen. Imagine the 1995 Indians, scoring 1,000 runs and allowing 1,000 unearned runs in the same season, with Thome at short and Manny at third. We deserve this alternate reality.

Alas, while he was drafted as a third baseman out of a New York high school, he never played an inning of infield in the minor leagues. We’ll just have to close our eyes and imagine what it would have been like.

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The Blue Jays have played themselves back into the race

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October 10, 2017

6:38 am

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Toronto is playing well, of course. The Rays are surprisingly a legitimately good team. The Orioles always stick around. The Red Sox have arguably the most talent of the group. Finally, the Yankees have been hot all season, and Aaron Judge doesn’t look like he’ll slow down. The AL East is going to be fun to watch this summer, and the Blue Jays are making sure they’ll be a part of it.

MLB has juiced baseballs before. The steroid era sure seems like it was the era of steroids, but it’s still probably improperly named, since there were plenty of other aspects at play that caused offense to rise: smaller ballparks, multiple expansions in the decade that (temporarily) diluted the talent pool in MLB, and juiced baseballs as proven by studies at the University of Massachusetts Lowell and written about by Jay Jaffe.

Now, we might be back to an era where the ball is livelier, and it’s because of a change in the design. That’s what Ben Lindbergh and a guy who blocked me on Twitter after I told him to log off are saying, anyway. A change to the seams has reduced air resistance on baseballs, and between that and the sudden desire of so many players to hit fly balls, we’ve got ourselves a whole bunch of dingers we didn’t have even just a few years ago.

There are some issues here, though. The pair even admit that this is a central question we can’t quite figure out, and also that some of this could just be inconsistency in the batches of balls themselves the fact they haven’t been able to test any balls from this year limits the scope, too. And if there was a change, was it intentional, or just one of those things that happens when the manufacturing process changes?

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It’s not like there’s a player on an 80-homer pace.

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October 8, 2017

3:25 pm

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The rest of them? Jose Altuve is incredible. Carlos Correa is incredible. George Springer is incredible. Brian McCann and Evan Gattis complement each other extraordinarily well. Josh Reddick is just OK, but that’s been his thing for a while.

It’s not like there’s a player on an 80-homer pace. It’s not like Altuve is hitting .440, which would be absurd, even for him. These are quality players providing quality production.

And with all that written, it’s time to get to the part where the Astros can get better. Not in a .800 winning percentage sense, but in terms of building a quality team with less of the postseason left to chance.

The trade deadline. All of those problems will either be fixed or the Astros will be open to fixing them. Have problems with the back of the rotation, still? Here’s Jose Quintana. Or Johnny Cueto. Or Quintana and Cueto. Is Beltran still disappointing? Here’s Yonder Alonso, who is like the Marwin Gonzalez of first base. There are so many different ways the Astros can go.

Previously, Chicago was behind the Mets on our scale, and ahead of the group of 23 other non-villainous teams that the Padres, Pirates, and Brewers were meant to represent on this wheel. The whole explanation for all that can be found here.

All the above isn’t quite enough to move them past the Mets, given the Mets are still owned by the Wilpons and they’re still causing us to all write about Tim Tebow. (Would you people please lose interest in him? Man.) On the other hand, the Mets are basically the most pathetic team in baseball right now. Everyone is hurt and the manager was, at one point, barred from discussing any injuries, and instead had to say things like a start was being skipped because of the weather.

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Joe Maddon & Cubs acted quickly to get rid of Miguel Montero before things got worse

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October 6, 2017

3:27 am

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Miguel Montero walked into the Chicago Cubs clubhouse Monday, saw his wide locker alongside veterans John Lackey and Jon Lester, and yelled to a clubhouse attendant that it took him 12 years to earn that spot. Two days later, it took him five minutes to lose it.

Montero, who was designated for assignment Wednesday, is what Cubs manager Joe Maddon calls a Stage 5 player. Stage 5 guys, Maddon says, are usually the best types of players to have on your team because all they want to do is win. Behind them are Stage 4 players, consumed with making as much money as possible, and Stage 3 guys, focused on staying in the league for as long as they can.

On the other other hand, maaaaaaybe the Cubs shouldn’t panic just yet. Maybe they’re still one of the very best teams in baseball, if not the best team. Sure, they were just swept by the Padres, and there’s no silver lining to that boring cloud. Yes, they’re under .500, and, yes, they’ve been outscored on the season, nearly a year after a thousand drooling features about their ludicrous run differential. But they’re also 2? games back, with 110 games to go.

This isn’t to suggest that SI is being hypocritical, or that Verducci is out of touch. Home runs are up, up, up. Strikeouts are up, up, up. The sport is turning into whiffwhiffwhiffwhiffwalkdingerwhiff, and it’s different than what we’re used to.

For all its stodginess, though, baseball has changed plenty over its history. Home Run Baker got his nickname because he lead the league in homers for four straight seasons, but his career high was 12 homers. When he retired, he was teammates with Babe Ruth, who sloughed off dinger spores and reshaped the league in his own image.

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These 4 heroic Florida fans are committed to seeing the Gators advance to the College World Series

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October 1, 2017

4:28 am

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The college baseball tournament is annually plagued by foul weather, and 2017 has been no different. The skies have been particularly troublesome in Florida for the super regional weekend, with Gainesville undergoing a four-hour delay on Saturday and both Tallahassee and Gainesville currently under dangerous weather delays. Tallahassee, for its part, has been delayed nearly seven hours.

This inconveniences everyone involved in these games, most pertinently players and coaches, who have to tame the emotions of in-game preparedness to the tedium of sitting around and waiting for the weather to clear.

A Trekkie (or is it Trekker?) made the initial attack by pulling off some moves that you’d normally do at a wedding, while the Star Wars side had a breakdancing Jedi, making this totally unfair from the start.

By the end of this, the crowd decided Star Wars was the better franchise. But I call shenanigans. If we’re going to do this for real as in, not set up to be lopsided where one side has an actual breakdancer we need a dance-off among Mark Hamill, John Boyega, Felicity Jones, Oscar Isaac, Daisy Ridley, LeVar Burton, Patrick Stewart, Kate Mulgrew, and Zoe Saldana. The winner will be decided by an anthropomorphic Rotten Tomatoes meter.

The Cubs and Diamondbacks each had a worthy starter at short in roughly half of their previous 20 seasons. Fair enough. But neither of them stumbled into even one All-Star-caliber season, according to WAR.

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